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These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires.Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September–November).Sie hatten viel zu lange angenommen, dass der Rückgang des arktischen Meereises irreversibel wäre. New research by Till Wagner and Ian Eisenman, scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, resolves a long-running debate over irreversible Arctic sea ice loss.Ever since the striking record minimum Arctic sea ice extent in 2007, the ominous scenario of a sea ice tipping point has been a fixture in the public debate surrounding man-made climate change and a contingency for which Arctic-bordering countries have prepared.Wagner and Eisenman’s research was co-funded by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and by the National Science Foundation. “The Navy has broad interest in the evolution of the Arctic,” said the ONR’s Frank Herr.“Sea ice dynamics are a critical component of the changing environmental picture.We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase.This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland.
Implications of a permanently ice-free Arctic for the environment and for national and economic security are significant, driving deep interest in predictive capabilities in the region. Arctic Roadmap, which calls for an assessment of changes in the Arctic Ocean to clarify the national security challenges for future naval operations as this strategic region becomes increasingly accessible.
This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of “tipping points” that are not actually there.
Der Hang zum Fatalistischen wird den Modellierern jetzt zum Verhängnis. Natürlich kann Eis das schmilzt, auch wieder gefrieren. In einer Pressemitteilung erklärte die Scripps Oceanic Institution diesen eigentlich intuitiven Sachverhalt: Scenarios of a sea ice tipping point leading to a permanently ice-free Arctic Ocean were based on oversimplified arguments.
Here we utilize a satellite based “active fire” (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001–2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions.
It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December–February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability.
Das arktische Meereis ist in den letzten Jahrzehnten geschmolzen. Einige alarmistisch veranlagte Zeitgenossen hatten mit einem viel schnelleren Rückgang gerechnet.